Pay review 2023

[jonty]

Mystic Bob has spoken 

[penguin]

Bob without sounding harsh needs to get a grip, turning every last post into a debate on his express losing nights because he is on £14 something an hour, without wanting to sound disrespectful its not some massive amount even if you times that by all the night fill express staff left and there are not that many, its becoming a broken record now.

[oldfashionedplayer]

He's not wrong though, they needed to save £5 billion, where do thry save it? Staff mainly... Night and Sunday premiums definitely won't be around much longer at all, it will be more flat rate, I do think with the putting everything together in aisles that makes it far easier to fill etc will be a reason they use as to go

 "we understand the need for basic pay, therefore we are  increasing the basic pay of all colleagues, and removing the night premium and Sunday premium rate as this is something we want to be more ewyal across the board, in doing so colleagues affected (not many) will get a lump sum.."

Thryll just make it so it's just over, like previously with a penny per hour better off... So yeah better basic but in actuality fir nights, probably same pay / few pence more in the move to cut it.

[NightAndDay]

Due to high inflation in the current year along with near record pay rises It's reasonable to expect the National Living Wage to go up by around 6% in April, the real living wage will update at the end of October, taking into account current core inflation being higher than overall inflation, I expect the real living wage will go up to £11.70 an hour outside of London and £12.85 inside of London, an increase of 80p and 90p in nominal terms or an increase of around 7%.

The national living wage increase won't be quite that high as they'll have to consider current interest rate impacts on businesses, but realistically 5-6% is probable, taking the new living wage to around between £11-£11.10 an hour or so next April.

Assuming Tesco maintains it's differential with the minimum wage, I reckon £11.60-£11.70, will be the new wage.

My last prediction at £11-£11.10 was pretty much on the nose, it is speculation at the end of the day, but all the factors considered makes my prediction more an educated guess rather than completely unfounded.

As with wage increase we expect cuts to jobs.I predict they will cut premiums like Sunday bank holidays etc. I also predict job cuts in terms of nights and some stores closing down. As a person who makes 14.30 an hour and 16 pound an hour on saturdsy night shif in london express store I dont see them increasing it by much maybe 2 pay increase the first by extra 40p an hour and second by 60p an hour later in the year.You have to remember Tesco has lost 1 billion in profit last year.

They didn't lose £1 billion, their pre tax profit was down to £1 billion. 

Inflation pressures, the national living wage and competition will ultimately factor in what Tescos next pay review figure will be, the current state of play is that Lidl and Aldi are the highest payers, Lidl starting rate being at £11.40 an hour and £12.30 an hour after length of service milestones have been achieved and Aldi similarly but starting at £11 an hour.

Morrison's are the lowest paid supermarket at the national living wage of £10.42 an hour but their pay review is in October and likely to at least match Lidl's £11.40 an hour, Sainsbury's and Asda will have theirs around January and are likely to at least £11.50 an hour, Tesco is therefore unlikely to pay any less.

[Bobmay]

He's not wrong though, they needed to save £5 billion, where do thry save it? Staff mainly... Night and Sunday premiums definitely won't be around much longer at all, it will be more flat rate, I do think with the putting everything together in aisles that makes it far easier to fill etc will be a reason they use as to go

 "we understand the need for basic pay, therefore we are  increasing the basic pay of all colleagues, and removing the night premium and Sunday premium rate as this is something we want to be more ewyal across the board, in doing so colleagues affected (not many) will get a lump sum.."

Thryll just make it so it's just over, like previously with a penny per hour better off... So yeah better basic but in actuality fir nights, probably same pay / few pence more in the move to cut it.

Correct he doesnt read the reports of tesco profits. Tesco this year has lost 1 billion I profits compared to last year.considering customers are spending less stores are more quiet it is only a matter of time when they remove nights from the final express stores.

[Bobmay]

Due to high inflation in the current year along with near record pay rises It's reasonable to expect the National Living Wage to go up by around 6% in April, the real living wage will update at the end of October, taking into account current core inflation being higher than overall inflation, I expect the real living wage will go up to £11.70 an hour outside of London and £12.85 inside of London, an increase of 80p and 90p in nominal terms or an increase of around 7%.

The national living wage increase won't be quite that high as they'll have to consider current interest rate impacts on businesses, but realistically 5-6% is probable, taking the new living wage to around between £11-£11.10 an hour or so next April.

Assuming Tesco maintains it's differential with the minimum wage, I reckon £11.60-£11.70, will be the new wage.

My last prediction at £11-£11.10 was pretty much on the nose, it is speculation at the end of the day, but all the factors considered makes my prediction more an educated guess rather than completely unfounded.

As with wage increase we expect cuts to jobs.I predict they will cut premiums like Sunday bank holidays etc. I also predict job cuts in terms of nights and some stores closing down. As a person who makes 14.30 an hour and 16 pound an hour on saturdsy night shif in london express store I dont see them increasing it by much maybe 2 pay increase the first by extra 40p an hour and second by 60p an hour later in the year.You have to remember Tesco has lost 1 billion in profit last year.

They didn't lose £1 billion, their pre tax profit was down to £1 billion. 

Inflation pressures, the national living wage and competition will ultimately factor in what Tescos next pay review figure will be, the current state of play is that Lidl and Aldi are the highest payers, Lidl starting rate being at £11.40 an hour and £12.30 an hour after length of service milestones have been achieved and Aldi similarly but starting at £11 an hour.

Morrison's are the lowest paid supermarket at the national living wage of £10.42 an hour but their pay review is in October and likely to at least match Lidl's £11.40 an hour, Sainsbury's and Asda will have theirs around January and are likely to at least £11.50 an hour, Tesco is therefore unlikely to pay any less.

If tesco pay 11.50 an hour they will cut something in return either remove more nights close some phone shops close more pharmacy  reduce premiums. Yes as I said tesco made far less money this year. 1 billion pound less irrelevant of the reason. Also you have to remember that tesco stated they plan on saving 1 billion in three years. Which also adds to my reasoning they will cut nights to the last express stores

[Sherwoodforest]

@bobmay i think what theyre saying is as base rate increases,night premium will erode,then you wouldnt need to remove nights as they,l be on same rate virtually,plus you have no clue how much tesco has saved with management restructures,stock control etc,

[Paulie]

Due to high inflation in the current year along with near record pay rises It's reasonable to expect the National Living Wage to go up by around 6% in April, the real living wage will update at the end of October, taking into account current core inflation being higher than overall inflation, I expect the real living wage will go up to £11.70 an hour outside of London and £12.85 inside of London, an increase of 80p and 90p in nominal terms or an increase of around 7%.

The national living wage increase won't be quite that high as they'll have to consider current interest rate impacts on businesses, but realistically 5-6% is probable, taking the new living wage to around between £11-£11.10 an hour or so next April.

Assuming Tesco maintains it's differential with the minimum wage, I reckon £11.60-£11.70, will be the new wage.

My last prediction at £11-£11.10 was pretty much on the nose, it is speculation at the end of the day, but all the factors considered makes my prediction more an educated guess rather than completely unfounded.

As with wage increase we expect cuts to jobs.I predict they will cut premiums like Sunday bank holidays etc. I also predict job cuts in terms of nights and some stores closing down. As a person who makes 14.30 an hour and 16 pound an hour on saturdsy night shif in london express store I dont see them increasing it by much maybe 2 pay increase the first by extra 40p an hour and second by 60p an hour later in the year.You have to remember Tesco has lost 1 billion in profit last year.

They didn't lose £1 billion, their pre tax profit was down to £1 billion. 

Inflation pressures, the national living wage and competition will ultimately factor in what Tescos next pay review figure will be, the current state of play is that Lidl and Aldi are the highest payers, Lidl starting rate being at £11.40 an hour and £12.30 an hour after length of service milestones have been achieved and Aldi similarly but starting at £11 an hour.

Morrison's are the lowest paid supermarket at the national living wage of £10.42 an hour but their pay review is in October and likely to at least match Lidl's £11.40 an hour, Sainsbury's and Asda will have theirs around January and are likely to at least £11.50 an hour, Tesco is therefore unlikely to pay any less.

If tesco pay 11.50 an hour they will cut something in return either remove more nights close some phone shops close more pharmacy  reduce premiums. Yes as I said tesco made far less money this year. 1 billion pound less irrelevant of the reason. Also you have to remember that tesco stated they plan on saving 1 billion in three years. Which also adds to my reasoning they will cut nights to the last express stores

No point speculating now until next Feb/March, enjoy xmas. 

[NightAndDay]

Jeremy Hunt announced today that he is waiting for recommendations from the low pay commission as to what the next national living wage will be but that it will be at least £11 an hour from next April which is what I predicted earlier.

If Tesco maintains its differential with mini bobs then £11.50-£11.70 seems likely.

[Duff McKagan]

If night premium is eroded as base rate rises then nights will end itself as there will be no staff prepared to work nights for the same money. It's hard enough to attract night workers now never mind attracting them on lower premiums.
I don't see anything happening for at least another 5 months now so not much point speculating now. What will be will be but until we are told officially everything should be considered a rumour.

[NightAndDay]

Sure, it's all speculation, but my analysis on pay reviews historically have been quite accurate, really it's just looking at what the other factors are (competition wages, national living wage, real living wage and to a lesser extent companies financial health) to get a probable, realistic picture of future pay reviews.

As to night premium, supply and demand would determine nights ending themselves  in that scenario, real terms night premium being diminished would ne a demand dampener, but unless Tesco wants to eventually get rid of nights, this is not the approach they'd take because if they wanted to keep nights, especially if it's of operational importance to some of their stores, then having a demand diminished equation in hiring would present recruitment challenges that could only be alleviated by a meaningful increase to the premium.

[Bobmay]

With improvement of technology in the next 10 years Tesco might not even need staff to fill. Anyone my prediction is that they will remove nights from more stores Express super store and even some extras. They will close down more pharmacy departments and might even remove phone shops and change they to online.Cut in premiums especially sundays bank holidays.I dont belive they will remove night premium they might cut it in half though.

[NightAndDay]

They won't have the upfront capital to implement those solutions, it'd be much more cost effective for them to implement a cashless shop than spend silly money on automated shelf stacking solutions, at least within the next 10 years.

They're looking at efficiencies in the business that don't require spending money at the moment, they won't risk alienating customers by investing billions into robots.

[penguin]

Shelf filling robots are already in use in convivence stores in Japan but the cost to set them up is huge, and then they only fill a small section of the store, not only that but the stores pay a monthly fee per robot to the manufacture for ongoing service and support. It will be a long long time before the cost benefits to a company the size of Tesco see them getting such systems installed.

[Hammer10]

So low pay set for 11.00 an hour starting April tesco better get their act together with our pay rise .

[oldfashionedplayer]

Nah they are above the minimum, 2p is plenty, look at Sunday and bank holiday premium, a penny is what they gave us extra last time with the changes to it...

But all seriousness they'd probably raise it up by another 70-80p with cuts and highlight the higher pay, so they look better in the media.

[grim up north]

Imagine if the Krispy Kreme donut man tells the robots they are getting rid of nights

[barafear]

I'd be surprised if the NLW was "only" £11 from next April - of course, the chancellor's speech stated "at least" - so even more reason that it might be "more" and then it's even more good news.

I'd have thought that we're looking at around £11.15-£11.25 for next year - even the upper end would only only be 83p increase on £10.42 = 7.96% increase.

Whether Tesco maintain their differential at around 70-80p might only become obvious when the others have made their moves - remember Tesco was last to act last year - of course, it would suit Tesco if it was "only £11" - because then their hand isn't forced as to the timing of our next pay review - so potentially they could delay any increase until summer/autumn - but as I said, I'd expect it be more than the current base pay we're on.

[NightAndDay]

The real living wage gets updated at the end of this month, Tesco for the last few pay reviews have at least matched what the real living wage is or negligibly exceeded it by a few pennies, (disregarding the fact the 6 month+ delay to when they actually update it) so it's likely that whatever the real living wage goes up to at the end of October (I predict between £11.70-£11.80 an hour) will be matched by Tesco when they increase pay in April.

[WAGs]

Imagine if the Krispy Kreme donut man tells the robots they are getting rid of nights

       

[madness]

Tesco wont replace filling staff with robots instore.
You can defo argue that checkout staff have been replaced with robots though.
Theres alot of automation in depots as well and probably more that is currently possible but would cost a huge ammount to impliment.

[Bobmay]

Shelf filling robots are already in use in convivence stores in Japan but the cost to set them up is huge, and then they only fill a small section of the store, not only that but the stores pay a monthly fee per robot to the manufacture for ongoing service and support. It will be a long long time before the cost benefits to a company the size of Tesco see them getting such systems installed.

That is now.When technology is new it is more expensive than after some time it becomes cheaper. If it already in japan then it is a matter of time when it will happen in my best opinion in 10 years from now.

[madness]

Japan has had high speed rail for 30+ years we havn't got it despite inventing rail travel...

[penguin]

We could have had it back in the 80s, my late Grandad was one of those who worked on various plans for high speed rail in this country all those years ago having spent his entire working life in train development, instead we got the intercity 125 and 225 both of them fast but not really high speed rail, and now we might get HS2 in 20 years time.

[JJH]

Shelf filling robots are already in use in convivence stores in Japan but the cost to set them up is huge, and then they only fill a small section of the store, not only that but the stores pay a monthly fee per robot to the manufacture for ongoing service and support. It will be a long long time before the cost benefits to a company the size of Tesco see them getting such systems installed.

That is now.When technology is new it is more expensive than after some time it becomes cheaper. If it already in japan then it is a matter of time when it will happen in my best opinion in 10 years from now.

What about the automated donuts?